WASHINGTON — North Carolina Rep. Chuck Edwards’ electability is being viewed differently by at least one group after allegations surfaced that he sexually harassed young female staffers in his office.

Edwards adamantly denies the allegations, but that wasn’t enough to keep the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics from moving the 11th Congressional District from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican,” directly tying its decision to the House Ethics Committee investigation and reports about Edwards’ actions toward young female staffers.

Axios reported that he’s accused of traveling to Las Vegas with a former employee 40 years his junior, buying two women in their 20s jewelry and designer bags, and sending one a three-page letter saying she had “written a complex chapter in my heart,” as well as a puzzle she had to put together to invite her to go with him to an Adam Sandler comedy show.

The University of Virginia analysis called the reporting “groan-inducing.”

“The recent reporting about Edwards gives Democrats an easy line of attack on the incumbent in what was already an emerging race,” wrote Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a Republican from Florida, told Politico on Tuesday that “any member engaging in an inappropriate relationship with staff needs to go,” while addressing the allegations against Edwards.

“The issues that are confronting the congressman in any other time, I think, would be probably be ending of a career,” said Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College. “But in this day and age, I’m not real sure that — particularly — partisans aligned with him are necessarily going to hold him to account. I’m of the opinion that partisan loyalty trumps a whole lot of misgivings.”

The Henderson County Republican Party published a newsletter this week vilifying the Ethics Committee and the media and defending Edwards, calling the accusations “ridiculous” and pointing to the difference between harassment and an affair.

“Almost everywhere the story headline is about sexual harassment, yet in one article, while the headline claimed sexual harassment, in the first or second paragraph it stated the actual accusation was an affair, a romantic attachment,” Greg Beam, the party chair wrote. “I think most people would say there is a vast difference between sexual harassment (non-consensual) and a romantic attachment (consensual).”

He then praised Edwards for the wins he’s had in Congress, including being appointed to the House Committee on Appropriations and “recruiting and managing a high-performing team.”

Edwards had a lot less to say in his defense to The Assembly, calling the allegations “horses--t” Tuesday night.

Shumaker and Edwards sent McClatchy a new statement Wednesday morning, both attributing it to themselves, saying, “They are baseless allegations designed to impact the campaign driven by those who want to settle old political scores. We welcome the ethics inquiry because it allows for facts to be entered into the record, not public allegations designed to drive media interests.”

Shumaker also answered questions on whether Edwards was considering resigning from Congress or leaving the race, saying: “nothing has changed.”

Precedent for resignation

Several other members of Congress, including Reps. Eric Swalwell, a Democrat from California, and Tony Gonzales, a Republican from Texas, also faced ethics investigations over allegations of inappropriate behavior toward female staffers, and at least initially denied those allegations.

Gonzales later admitted to an affair, and Swalwell admitted to lapses in judgment, but denied the majority of the allegations against him. Both resigned from office and ended their reelection campaigns.

In doing so, they also ended the ethics investigations, as the committee only has jurisdiction over current members and their staffs.

“I think this is another inflection point, and people are aware there are members of Congress behaving badly,” said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University. “That is more top of mind now after Swalwell than it was before, and that matters — timing matters in politics more than anything else, and it is a more difficult time to weather the storm now than it would have been pre-Swalwell.”

Still unclear is the impact these allegations could have both on Edwards’ influence in Congress and on his and other campaigns.

Among his options are resigning from Congress, withdrawing his name from the ballot, doing both, or doing nothing.

Impact on the majority

Republicans can hardly afford to lose another member of their party in the chamber.

Currently, the House has 217 Republicans, 212 Democrats and one independent, who was formerly a Democrat.

That means if there’s a party-line vote, House Speaker Mike Johnson can only lose one vote to Democrats or the bill goes down.

There are currently five vacancies in the House caused by two deaths and three resignations, of three Democrats and two Republicans.

“The House is extremely closely divided,” Cooper said, “and I have no doubt just the degree in which Edwards receives pressure will be affected by a whip count — a count of the numbers of Republicans.”

Special election

If Edwards were to resign, Democratic Gov. Josh Stein could call for a special election to replace him.

Neither Cooper nor Bitzer expect Stein to do that.

In March 2020, Rep. Mark Meadows, a Republican from Cashiers and the same district as Edwards, resigned from office to work as Trump’s chief of staff.

At the time, Democrat Roy Cooper was governor and chose not to call a special election, waiting for the next election to come around in November.

It can be a strategic move for Democrats to keep the opposing party’s number lower in the House.

The 11th Congressional District

On the other side of the aisle, Republicans are counting on Edwards to retain his seat in the House.

Edwards’ district, tucked away in the southwestern corner of North Carolina, was never intended to be a pickup for Democrats.

President Donald Trump won the district by nine points.

A Democrat hasn’t been elected to Congress from the 11th District since 2010, Cooper said. And only Buncombe County voted for then-Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump in 2024.

Cooper also points out that, of the 16 counties in the district, only four voted in 2024 for Stein as governor. The rest voted for then-Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who was mired, at the time, in a scandal involving posting on a porn forum where he allegedly called himself “a Black Nazi.”

“You’re the worst candidate in North Carolina history — certainly modern history — and he still won not just the majority, but the supermajority of counties in the district,” Cooper said.

Cooper said if allegations against Edwards get worse, it might make sense to replace him “and put somebody in who can help the district return to its natural partisan state, which is a little more Republican.”

The Democrat

Jamie Ager, Edwards’ Democratic opponent, was already exposing weak points in Edwards’ campaign.

Ager is a fourth-generation farmer whose brother, father and grandfather have served in various aspects of state and federal government.

“What oftentimes is needed are candidates who are challenging incumbents to be the best fit for the district and maybe not for the national political dynamic,” Bitzer said. “I think Ager is the best kind of fit in an environment that seems to be leaning more and more toward Democratic favor.”

There have been few polls on the 11th released publicly. But in January, Newsweek published the results of an Impact Research poll that showed Ager leading by a point, 45-44, with 10% still undecided. When biographies were provided to those polled, Ager led by seven points.

The poll was conducted internally by Ager’s team.

Ager is also out-raising Edwards and currently has $1.1 million cash on hand over Edwards’ $490,000.

Cooper said Edwards never was a great fundraiser, but that’s par for the course in the 11th. Meadows wasn’t either.

Ager’s fundraising totals are outsized for a Democrat in the district.

“These are big numbers nationally,” Cooper said, “and they’re huge numbers in the 11th.”

Impact on the election

But whether the allegations against Edwards are affecting the election isn’t yet clear.

Cooper said that the stories are just now breaking through in the district.

“It is a big, big district, geographically, and it is in multiple media markets,” Cooper said. “So it’s harder for things to get around this district, as it would be many others.”

He said because of how newspapers deliver and radio and television broadcast in the area, some people are getting their news out of Atlanta, others from Knoxville or Chattanooga, Tennessee, and still others from Greenville and Spartanburg, South Carolina.

Bitzer doesn’t think Edwards is fighting to retain Republicans, but to keep independents who might be turned off by the news.

If Edwards decides he can’t overcome the scandal and drops from the race, it would be up to the party’s district executive committee to choose a replacement for Edwards on the ballot, according to state law.

North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District Republicans have not responded to a request for comment about whether they’re preparing for that possibility.

Their choice of a nominee would appear in Edwards’ place to face off against Ager in November.

Cooper told McClatchy Wednesday that if Edwards is serious that these allegations are nonsense, “then they should stick with the horse they have, and he shouldn’t go anywhere. He should fight these allegations tooth and nail.”

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