More voters who are registered as Republicans have left the state of California between the last two presidential elections (2020 and 2024) than Democrats, according to a new study.

Between that timeframe, approximately 39 percent of those leaving the state registered to vote were registered as Republican (compared to 25 percent Democrat), and on the flipside, those heading into California registered to vote were disproportionately Democrat (54 percent), according to a new study by the Public Policy Institute of California.

And Nevada appears to be gaining many of those Republicans from California. Another study by the Public Policy Institute found that in 2024, the Silver State ranked highest for gaining residents from California per 1,000 residents (13 per every 1,000), which is a higher rate than Florida and Texas.

California’s population dropped from July 2024 to July 2025, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data and was one of only five states that saw a population decline during that timeframe. Nevada’s population growth has also slowed since a bump during the pandemic and its overall growth is well below pre-pandemic norms, according to the census.

There is no doubt this migratory trend from California to red states is partially driven by politics, said Eric McGhee, a policy director and senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute.

“Way more Republicans are leaving,” he said about California residents’ exodus. “Also higher income people as opposed to those with lower incomes, when they move, are more likely to move to states without an income tax.”

Nevada, along with Alaska, Florida, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming do not have income taxes, and while Washington does not tax income, it does have a substantial capital gains tax. McGee said states like Tennessee and Nevada, specifically were seeing lots of migration during the pandemic due to the rise of remote work coupled with no income tax and overall low cost of living compared to major metro regions on the coastal areas.

The Public Policy Institute report outlined the specific dissatisfaction Republicans in California have with the governance structure. The Democrats have controlled both the governor’s office and the state Legislature for well over a decade.

“There are lots of reasons to think that Republicans and conservatives would be more likely to leave California,” reads the report. “Democrats dominate the state’s governing institutions and have passed relatively liberal policies. In Public Policy Institute surveys, California Republicans tend to disapprove of statewide elected officials, and they are far more likely to say they have thought about leaving California. In addition, Republican registrants have disproportionately fallen off the state’s registration records over time in a way consistent with more Republicans leaving California.”

Anecdotal reports have found an increase in high-net-worth individuals fleeing both California and Washington over the past year, according to multiple Las Vegas Valley realtors, and McGhee said this definitely shows up in the data.

“Historically there are three big things that drive migration,” he said. “Cost of living, jobs and friends and family. That’s what’s driven migration historically and I don’t think that’s changed but what has changed is the relative mix of those things… and what has really changed over time is a lot of people who are moving out of California are saying that housing costs are the main driver. So certainly cost of living has become more important.”

The Public Policy Institute’s report on migration trends from California also noted a shift in who is leaving regarding housing, specifically.

“In the last few years low-income Californians have become more likely — and high-income Californians less likely — to move to states with cheaper housing prices (those with median prices in the bottom half nationally),” reads the report. “This partly reflects the spread of the housing crisis to other states. Prices have increased everywhere, but especially in states that had higher prices already. It is no longer enough just to leave California: movers must be increasingly sensitive to costs in the places they move to.”

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