Hurricane center says system off Florida coast has 70% chance to develop

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jul 4, 2025

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ORLANDO, Fla. — An area of low pressure formed off the coast of Jacksonville on Friday and could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In its 2 p.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said the system had become more defined and was located about 150 miles off the northeast Florida coast with more defined with an area of strong winds located on its east side.

“Showers and thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the center. A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression couldform later Friday or on Saturday while the system drifts generally north-northwestward,” forecasters said. “This low is expected to move inland over thesoutheastern U.S. by early Sunday.”

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft had headed out Friday afternoon to get more data on the system’s structure.

Whether it develops or not, heavy rainfall is possible across a massive swath of the Florida peninsula through early Saturday and then across coastal sections of the Carolinas.

The NHC gives it a 70% chance to develop in the next two days, and 70% within the next seven.

If it did become a named story, it could develop into Tropical Storm Chantal, the third of the season.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne said the area of low pressure combined with a stalled front over the state has meant a buildup of moisture that could drop several rounds of rain on parts of the state through Friday.

Similar rain on Thursday led to some local areas in Central Florida seeing 4 inches of rain.

“This is a reasonable worst-case scenario that persists for today`s storms as well,” forecasters said. “A few wind gusts from 35-45 mph have alow chance of accompanying the strongest storms.”

This is the first system of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season that could threaten the U.S.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 13 to 19 named storms this year, of which 6-10 will become hurricanes. Three to five of those would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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