WASHINGTON — While senators are leaving Washington at a higher-than-normal pace, House retirements are lagging behind the historical average.

But it’s still early, and second-quarter campaign finance reports, due July 15, could provide a window into departures to come.

Thus far, 16 House members have announced they aren’t seeking reelection, but calling it an exodus or referring to all these exits as retirements wouldn’t be accurate. Thirteen of them are running for another office, including seven members who are attempting to move just a few steps across the Capitol to the Senate. The other six are running for governor, including Iowa Republican Randy Feenstra, who’s formed an exploratory committee but hasn’t formally announced a gubernatorial bid.

Just three House members — Illinois Democrat Jan Schakowsky, Nebraska Republican Don Bacon and Pennsylvania Democrat Dwight Evans — are leaving at the end of their terms without running for something else. (Note: This list does not include resignations, with Tennessee Republican Mark E. Green expected to step down on July 20.)

But whether they’re running for something else or leaving public service altogether, there will be more members who decide against reelection this cycle. Going back 80 years, the average number of House open seats has been 35. Recent lows include 24 seats in 2014 and 25 each in 2012 and 2008.

Why are they leaving?

Typically, conversations around House retirements and open seats make it seem like members are decrepit, fleeing a toxic work environment or fearful of losing reelection. Yet the circumstances surrounding departures are generally more varied.

One key reason for leaving is often political opportunity. Five of the seven House members running for the other chamber are seeking one of four open Senate seats. They include Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi in Illinois, Haley Stevens in Michigan, Angie Craig in Minnesota and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire, all Democrats. Two House Republicans are running for Senate: Earl L. “Buddy” Carter of Georgia and Andy Barr of Kentucky. Republicans Mike Collins of Georgia and Bill Huizenga of Michigan are teasing bids as well.

Running for governor is more popular on the GOP side. Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona, Byron Donalds of Florida, John James of Michigan, Dusty Johnson of South Dakota, John W. Rose of Tennessee and Feenstra make up two-thirds of all House Republicans not seeking reelection. They could eventually be joined by Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman of South Carolina. Norman reported raising just $25,000 in the second quarter that ended June 30. New York Reps. Elise Stefanik and Mike Lawler are also weighing gubernatorial bids.

For Schakowsky (81 years old) and Evans (71), age and health were likely a factor in their decisions to retire. Evans had a mild stroke last year. Bacon, 61, was weighing another competitive reelection race in his Omaha-based district, one of three Republican-held seats that Kamala Harris carried last year, against a desire to spend more time with his grandchildren. But up to this point, age and political survival have not driven the House departures.

Majority makers?

With the exceptionally high reelection rate for incumbents (93%, on average, going back to 1964, according to OpenSecrets), open seats are regarded as better takeover opportunities. For years, my former boss Stuart Rothenberg would write a Roll Call column listing out the “Dangerous Dozen” seats without an incumbent that were vulnerable each cycle.

But the current crop of open House seats will likely see limited action in the general election next year. Just three of the 16 are rated as competitive by Inside Elections, while the other 13 are considered Solid for either party.

Republicans will have a hard time defending Bacon’s 2nd District, where Harris finished nearly 5 points ahead of Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot. They will also face a fight to defend James’ 10th District, which Trump won with 52% of the vote. Without Pappas, New Hampshire’s 1st will be more difficult for Democrats to hold. Harris topped Trump with just 51% there.

Democrats are fortunate that Rep. Jared Golden decided to forgo a statewide run and instead seek reelection to Maine’s 2nd District, considering Trump carried the seat by 9 points last fall. And Lawler’s seat in New York’s Hudson Valley, which Harris narrowly carried, would be tough for Republicans to defend should he choose to decamp it for the governor’s race.

But the dearth of competitive open House seats could still matter, considering Republicans’ narrow majority in the chamber. Democrats need to gain just three seats to get to 218.

Primaries will be the most consequential races in the 13 open seats that comfortably sit on either end of the partisan spectrum. For example, Harris received 88% of the vote in Pennsylvania’s 3rd District and 66% in Illinois’ 2nd, while Trump received 67% in Tennessee’s 6th and 65% in Iowa’s 4th.

Races in Minnesota’s 2nd District, where Harris received 51%, or Kentucky’s 6th, where Trump earned 57%, could grow competitive depending on how strong, and in which direction, the political winds are blowing next fall.

But in any case, with most filing deadlines more than six months away, there’s still plenty of time for more House members to decide against another term in the chamber. And after seeing three House members all announce on a single day that they weren’t running for reelection, we know these things can come in batches.

Here are the 16 open House seats and their Inside Elections rating:

Currently held by Democrats (7)

Illinois’ 2nd (Robin Kelly running for Senate): Solid Democratic

Illinois’ 8th (Raja Krishnamoorthi running for Senate): Solid Democratic

Illinois 9th (Jan Schakowsky not seeking reelection): Solid Democratic

Michigan’s 11th (Haley Stevens running for Senate): Solid Democratic

Minnesota’s 2nd (Angie Craig running for Senate): Solid Democratic

New Hampshire’s 1st (Chris Pappas running for Senate): Lean Democratic

Pennsylvania’s 3rd (Dwight Evans not seeking reelection): Solid Democratic

Currently held by Republicans (9)

Arizona’s 5th (Andy Biggs running for governor): Solid Republican

Florida’s 19th (Byron Donalds running for governor): Solid Republican

Georgia’s 1st (Earl L. “Buddy” Carter running for Senate): Solid Republican

Iowa’s 4th (Randy Feenstra exploring run for governor): Solid Republican

Kentucky’s 6th (Andy Barr running for Senate): Solid Republican

Michigan’s 10th (John James running for governor): Tilts Republican

Nebraska’s 2nd (Don Bacon not seeking reelection): Toss-up

South Dakota’s At-Large (Dusty Johnson running for governor): Solid Republican

Tennessee’s 6th (John W. Rose running for governor): Solid Republican

©2025 CQ-Roll Call, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Visit cqrollcall.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.