JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — Missouri may need to build a new $870 million prison if a Republican-backed sentencing overhaul increases the inmate population as projected, according to a financial analysis of anti-crime legislation being fast-tracked by lawmakers.

The analysis estimates the sentencing overhaul would boost the state’s inmate population by 1,715 over the next decade, resulting in the demand for a new prison and ultimately costing the state an additional $24.5 million annually.

The legislation, Senate Bill 888, seeks to overhaul sentencing and the state’s approach to juvenile justice, and is a priority for Gov. Mike Kehoe. It would require people convicted of felonies to serve a certain percentage of their sentence, and makes it easier to detain minors after arrests and charge them as adults.

It is poised for a final vote in the Missouri House.

The fiscal note now throws a wrench into the debate. Legislators want to be tough on crime, but also worry about the costs, with the state facing flat revenue growth and a dwindling cash surplus. The governor wants to cut $600 million from the state's budget for the fiscal year starting July 1.

"What is the real cost going to be?" Rep. Scott Cupps, R-Shell Knob, said Wednesday at a Fiscal Oversight Committee hearing. "Because I heard $800 million, and then I heard, no, $20 million. But fundamentally, if we wind up somewhere where we're still going to have $100 million of ongoing (expenses) that's still going to be somewhat problematic, given our budgetary output for the next probably five, six years."

Missouri Department of Corrections Director Trevor Foley, however, said the bill's impact isn't so clear cut. Inmate numbers have risen in recent years and the state may well need to build a new prison regardless. He testified in favor of the bill on behalf of the corrections department.

Corrections spokeswoman Karen Pojmann said Missouri’s 19 prisons house roughly 24,900 inmates and have the capacity to house 1,200 more. Staffing shortages prevent prisons from operating at full capacity.

The department employs 4,225 corrections officers with 850 vacant corrections officer positions statewide as of Jan. 27.

The bill

The proposal takes discretion away from the state Parole Board and requires people convicted of felonies to serve a certain percentage of their sentence before becoming eligible for parole.

Those in favor of the change say requiring prisoners to serve a minimum amount of time makes sentencing more transparent.

It "vitally important" for crime victims to know how long the perpetrator will spend, at a minimum, behind bars, said Cole County Prosecutor Locke Thompson, speaking at the hearing for the Missouri Association of Prosecuting Attorneys.

The change affects people convicted of a range felonies, from armed robbery to drug possession.

The most significant change, according to the Missouri State Public Defender Director Matthew Crowell, is requiring people convicted of three or more lower-level felonies to serve at least half of their sentence.

Someone pulled over with three different drugs in their car under current law would likely serve 15% of their sentence and be out in a matter of months. Required to serve half of their sentence, they might remain in prison for years.

"A lot of people are going to spend a lot more time in prison than they currently are," Crowell said in an interview.

The proposal makes it easier for law enforcement to detain children following an arrest, enables counties to raise sales taxes to build juvenile detention centers, and strengthens prosecutors’ role in certifying children as adults in courts.

It also requires police to include in a statewide database the names of children they fingerprint following an arrest, and makes it easier for law enforcement and prosecutors to access arrest records.

The information would remain "closed" — though some fear juvenile criminal records will turn up on background checks during job applications.

A fiscal note critic

Foley, the corrections director, predicted the state would need to expand its prison capacity given recent growth in the inmate population.

The current prison population declined from 33,300 in 2017 but began to grow “fairly significantly” in 2025, Foley said in an exchange with Rep. Barry Hovis, R-Whitewater, at a corrections committee meeting on Tuesday.

“Absent some change in that growth pattern, it is likely that construction's in the future,” Foley said.

Prisoners today are older, more violent, have greater need for medical and addiction treatment, and serve longer sentences than in the past, he added.

Each inmate costs the state $11,123 annually, or $30.47 daily, according to the fiscal note, including things like food and medical care but not salaries and benefits of prison staff or other costs associated with running the prison.

If the prison population increases enough to require the state to build a new prison, the fiscal note estimates the cost per inmate would rise to $39,040 per inmate annually.

Sen. Nick Schroer, R-Defiance, who is sponsoring the legislation, urged lawmakers not to rely on the estimated financial impact.

“I have long, long been a critic of the way our fiscal notes are drafted and done within the state,” Schroer said.

He pointed to a 2018 measure he sponsored to raise the age when someone is prosecuted as an adult from 17 to 18. That bill’s fiscal note, Schroer said, changed 15 times and did not consider the fiscal impact on all state departments.

Democrats on the committee remained unconvinced.

“If we are increasing (the) prison population,” said Rep. Kimberly-Ann Collins, D-St. Louis, “I still believe that this $869 million fiscal note is the building of a new prison.”

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