SACRAMENTO, Calif. — A federal judge this week dismissed a key Trump administration challenge to California rules allowing transgender students to compete on athletic teams in accordance with their gender identities. But legal experts say the decision, while significant, may not be the end of the legal saga over transgender rights and school sports.

The ruling by U.S. District Judge Cynthia Valenzuela is the latest entry in a crowded legal landscape over transgender rights, as conservative groups and the federal government push forward with lawsuits and other challenges in several states, and civil rights organizations and liberal states push back.

It comes on the heels of a U.S. Supreme Court decision in June that said states could exclude transgender students from sex-segregated teams if they wished to — but did not say that federal law required them to do so.

“It’s a significant setback to the Trump administration’s efforts to go even further than the Supreme Court did this summer,” said Shawn Meerkamper, managing attorney at the Transgender Law Center in Oakland.

But the ruling, rooted in longstanding precedent around how federal funding is allocated, is not likely to be the final word on transgender student rights in California or across the country, Meerkamper and others said.

The case, filed last year in federal court in Los Angeles by the U.S. Department of Justice against state education and school sports officials, was among three similar actions filed by the administration against trans-inclusive sports policies in California, Maine and Minnesota.

In it, the government argued that allowing students who had been born male to compete on girls’ teams amounted to discrimination against female athletes in violation of a section of federal civil rights law. The lawsuit also argued that allowing such students into girls’ locker rooms jeopardized privacy and safety.

California argued in response that there was no language in the civil rights law barring trans girls from participating in girls sports. Attorney General Rob Bonta, who did not comment on Valenzuela’s dismissal of the case, said in court papers that the state had banned discrimination based on gender identity for more than a decade, and accused the administration of targeting transgender youth.

Why did the judge dismiss the case?

In her ruling, Valenzuela said she was dismissing the case because of regulations around how — and in what circumstances — a state can be accused of breaking the law that is at issue.

That’s because the statute, Title IX of a 1972 federal civil rights law, applies to schools that receive money from the U.S. government. And rules about how the government may enforce such a law must be very clear, and have to be presented in a precise way to states, agencies or others before they can be accused of any violations.

Yet federal policy on transgender rights at school, and the participation of trans students in sports, has changed almost from year to year, as the policies of former President Barack Obama, a Democrat, gave way to those of the first Trump administration, then the Biden administration and now Trump’s highly conservative second term, said Brian Soucek, a constitutional law expert at UC Davis who specializes in LGBTQ+ legal issues.

“It’s just this constant boomeranging back and forth,” Soucek said.

As a result, the lawsuit seeks to enforce a rule that was not made clear in advance, leaving the government with no way to establish that the state broke the law, Valenzuela wrote in her opinion.

“The defect here is legal,” she wrote, dismissing the case with prejudice, which means that it cannot be refiled later unless an appeals court rules otherwise.

What happens next?

The federal government has not yet decided whether it will appeal the case, a spokesperson for the Department of Justice said in an email to The Sacramento Bee.

“We are disappointed by the Court’s order, and remain committed to enforcing President Trump’s agenda preventing boys from playing in girls’ sports,” said the spokesperson, who did not provide a name. “We are evaluating our options for appeal.”

But the Supreme Court just two months ago declined to ban states from allowing transgender girls on sports teams, and the justices may not respond to an appeal if one reaches them, said Meerkamper.

“If they had wanted to, the Supreme Court could have gone further with their decision,” Meerkamper said. “They did not.”

If the administration does appeal, Valenzuela’s order may well hold up, because it is based on well-settled precedent, said Soucek.

“It’s a strong decision from the district court,” said Soucek. “I think it’s one that’s likely to survive.”

Does this mean questions of transgender rights are settled?

Valenzuela’s ruling essentially preserves the status quo, leaving in place California’s requirement that schools allow transgender students to play on teams that align with their gender identities.

But broader questions of transgender rights and the participation of trans girls on sports teams are far from settled, Soucek said.

The federal cases against Maine and Minnesota are still actively being litigated, and Valenzuela’s ruling will not impact them, he said.

Other cases, including one filed by San Jose State University against the Trump administration over the same question, are also making their way through the courts.

There is no way of knowing whether other district court judges will rule, as Valenzuela did, on the question of funding connected to Title IX. If a judge is instead presented with whether the constitution allows — or bans — transgender rights or transgender participation in sports, powerful rulings could emerge either codifying or denying them.

Politics could also play a role. An incoming Democratic administration could try to use Title IX to create a federal rule requiring the participation of trans girls on female sports teams, while a Republican administration might continue Trump-era policies.

Future administrations might also develop a more nuanced policy, enshrining some civil rights for transgender people but sidestepping the question of playing on sports teams, Soucek said.

“You could kick the can on sports, which is a complicated issue, while still making clear that a school can’t discriminate in admissions against trans people,” he said.

“We’re just in this ping-pong world.”

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