Hurricane center dials back chances Atlantic system could develop

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Sep 16, 2026

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ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday reined in the chances a system in the Atlantic could become the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda was continuing to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development in the next few days while the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic,” forecasters said,

The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 30% chance to develop in the next seven days. It had been up to 40% on Tuesday.

So far the hurricane season has yet to produce an actual hurricane, but has seen the formation of tropical storms Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard. The next name on the list is Fay.

Edouard made landfall in Louisiana with the NHC’s last advisory coming on Sept. 3 as it moved inland over Texas.

It’s been quiet in the tropics since then.

Hurricane season began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, but the height of hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last month updated its seasonal forecast and now expects between seven and 13 named storms this year. Of those, two to six would become hurricanes. It also predicted that there might not be any major hurricanes this year, or at most two.

Already, 2026 was forecast to have lower-than-average storm generation, and that has been reduced even further with the latest forecasts from the NOAA and other weather groups.

An average year would see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of those growing to Category 3 strength or higher.

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