Forecasters say it's possible Hurricane Polo could cause coastal flooding in San Diego County

Gary Robbins and Phil Diehl, The San Diego Union-Tribune on Sep 23, 2026

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SAN DIEGO — A major swell from Hurricane Polo might combine with large high tides in northern San Diego County on Monday and Tuesday, causing flooding in an area that has already suffered severe beach erosion, according to the National Weather Service.

The hurricane, one of the largest ever recorded in the eastern Pacific, also might push waves close to the railroad tracks in San Clemente, once again disrupting commuter rail service between San Diego and Orange counties.

Forecasters say Polo is moving northwest off southwestern Mexico and will send enormous rain ashore over the next few days. The system is expected to come close to the southern tip of Baja California on Saturday, but not curve onshore.

It’s possible that Polo will turn a little toward land, which could greatly impact Southern California.

“For now, I’d lean toward select spots getting some extreme angled southeast swell early next week,” said Kevin Wallis, a forecaster for Surfline in Huntington Beach.

“That will bypass most — but not all — of San Diego County and focus primarily in Orange County (especially North Orange County). If there are going to be beach flooding and/or erosion issues, the likeliest place that would happen is northern San Diego County,” he said.

The situation is worrisome, in part because the region will be experiencing big high tides when the swell arrives. In most of San Diego County, the tide will peak at 10:20 a.m. Monday when it reaches 6 feet 6 inches. The tide will top out at 6 feet 9 inches at 10:52 a.m. on Tuesday.

Amtrak’s Pacific Surfliner passenger trains were suspended between San Diego and Orange counties earlier this month and several other times in the past year because of powerful surf and erosion that required repairs along the railroad tracks near San Clemente.

The San Clemente work also temporarily stopped Metrolink trains in Orange County from reaching Oceanside, their only stop in San Diego County.

Carlsbad declared a local emergency earlier this month to expedite repairs of coastal erosion that threatens to undermine Carlsbad Boulevard, also known as the historic Highway 101.

Construction crews are placing boulders weighing 4 to 8 tons each on the beach to extend an existing revetment by 192 feet along the highway just north of the Encinas Creek outlet, city officials said. The work was expected to take three to four weeks.

Oceanside and Carlsbad have both created teams of city officials to review flood-response procedures and begin clearing storm drains and creeks to get ready for the expected El Niño.

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