The 10 most vulnerable House members less than a week before Election Day

WASHINGTON — At the start of the cycle, Democrats’ path to the House majority appeared to run through the blue states of New York and California.

But less than a week before Election Day, the main battleground is largely centered on red-leaning districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024.

Still, a pair of Californians occupy the top two spots on CQ Roll Call’s final list of the most vulnerable House incumbents of 2026. Republican Rep. James Gallagher and independent Kevin Kiley, who caucuses with the GOP, both hold seats that were radically reshaped in Democrats’ favor under a mid-decade redraw of the Golden State map, making their paths to reelection significantly more challenging.

Similarly, the only two Democrats on our list represent districts that became more Republican: Florida’s Darren Soto and Alabama’s Shomari Figures. Some half dozen other House Democrats whose districts were redrawn mid-cycle are also locked in competitive races but remain just outside the top 10, as they seek to take advantage of incumbency, strong political tailwinds and, in some cases, favorable dynamics at the top of the ticket.

Republicans from traditional battleground districts round out the rest of our list. Concerns over the rising cost of living, fueled by the war in Iran and Trump’s tariff policies, have created a punishing political environment for Republican incumbents. Recent polling has found Trump’s job approval rating deeply underwater.

“We’re on the verge of taking back control of the House,” the chamber’s Democratic leader, Hakeem Jeffries, told The Associated Press last week.

Those factors have boosted the hopes of Democratic incumbents in red-leaning territory, such as North Carolina Rep. Don Davis, who drops off this final list. Republican state lawmakers redrew Davis’ seat in the GOP’s favor, but Democrats are encouraged by potential coattail effects from the Senate contest.

Further afield from the battleground, Democrats hope to bolster their majority by defeating Republicans who hold deep red districts in places such as Lexington, Ky., northern Nevada and South Texas. GOP operatives, though, write off such assertions as wishcasting.

CQ Roll Call’s rankings are based on conversations with campaign insiders, party officials and independent election analysts, as well as candidates’ fundraising and race ratings by political handicappers.

While we only considered vulnerable incumbents for this list, there are more than a dozen of open seats that will also play a major role in determining which party controls the House.

And as is generally the case, we also did not include the race between two sitting House Republicans, Ken Calvert and Young Kim, who are competing for the same Southern California seat after redistricting. California is also playing host to several blue-on-blue contests in which two Democrats advanced from the state’s June all-party primary. Potentially vulnerable incumbents in this group include Reps. Doris Matsui, Jimmy Gomez and Mike Thompson.

1. James Gallagher (R)

California's 1st District

Gallagher's 2024 margin: none (elected 2026)

Trump's 2024 margin: -12.2 (new lines)

Race Rating: Solid Democratic

Gallagher, who won a special election in June to fill the Northern California seat of the late GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa, faces a steep climb in his bid for a full term. The 1st District was among several in the state that were restructured to favor Democrats. Gallagher’s opponent is Democrat Mike McGuire, the well-connected former leader of the California State Senate, who has outpaced him in fundraising, bringing in $2.3 million to the Republican’s $2 million through Oct. 14. Gallagher picked up Trump’s support prior to the special election, but the president’s endorsement is no longer listed on his campaign website.

2. Kevin Kiley (I)

California's 6th District

Kiley's 2024 margin: +11.0 (3rd District)

Trump's 2024 margin: -8.4 (new 6th District lines)

Race Rating: Lean Democratic

After Democrats revamped his current House seat, Kiley cast off his Republican affiliation and pivoted to the blue-leaning 6th District in the Sacramento area. While he caucuses with the GOP, Kiley has sought to burnish his independent credentials, picking up the endorsement of former West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin III in his race against Democratic pediatrician and former state Sen. Richard Pan. He even told Punchbowl News he’d consider supporting Hakeem Jeffries for speaker and wouldn’t caucus with either party next year. Outside money is flowing to the race, including a multimillion-dollar investment supporting Pan from 314 Action, which backs Democrats with science backgrounds.

3. Darren Soto (D)

Florida's 9th District

Soto's 2024 margin: +12.5

Trump's 2024 margin: +17.8 (new lines)

Race Rating: Likely Republican

Soto remains the most vulnerable Democrat on our list after state Republicans significantly altered his district in their favor. While incumbency could help Soto, it may not be enough of a boost in a district that is no longer majority Hispanic. Soto has outraised his Republican opponent, Navy veteran Dan Green, although the latest filings showed him with less cash on hand for the final stretch of the campaign. The congressman has pointed to internal polls showing a tied race, but while he’s outrun other Democrats at the top of ticket in previous election, it’s not clear whether he’ll be able to do so this time.

4. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

Iowa's 1st District

Miller-Meeks' 2024 margin: +0.2

Trump's 2024 margin: +8.5

Race Rating: Tilt Demoratic

Miller-Meeks has struggled to win her eastern Iowa seat even in strong Republican years: She beat Democrat Christina Bohannan by less than 800 votes in 2024, while Trump carried the district by more than 8 points. Bohannan is back, and this year, the political headwinds are blowing in her favor. Both Miller-Meeks and Bohannan have been strong fundraisers, but earlier this month, The New York Times reported that top outside groups were pulling advertising support for the incumbent, a sign that Miller-Meeks’ reelection odds are fading. Independent candidate Michael Bridgford is a potential wildcard in the race.

5. Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R)

New Jersey's 7th District

Kean's 2024 margin: +5.4

Trump's 2024 margin: +1.2

Race Rating: Tilt Democratic

Kean, who debuted on this list last month, moves up three spots after GOP outside groups, including the Congressional Leadership Fund, recently withdrew ad spending from the Central Jersey district to help shore up other Republicans. The 7th District, which became more favorable for Republicans after the 2020 census, has flipped between the parties over the past decade. Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who has drawn comparisons to New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, has emphasized an anti-corruption message and focused on rising health care costs. Both have been strong fundraisers, and each had more than $1 million on hand as of Oct. 14.

6. Shomari Figures (D)

Alabama's 2nd District

Figures' 2024 margin: +9.2

Trump's 2024 margin: +14.3

Race Rating: Lean Republican

Redistricting made Figures’ path to reelection very challenging, but Democrats give him a chance at holding his southeastern Alabama seat. The Yellowhammer State doesn’t have early voting, but Democrats see high Black voter turnout this month in other Southern states as something that Figures’ coalition could emulate next week. Figures has outraised state Rep. Rhett Marques, who had just $178,000 on hand for the final stretch of the campaign compared with the incumbent’s $1.2 million. But the Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC has poured $2.5 million into this race to boost Marques.

7. Ryan Mackenzie (R)

Pennsylvania's 7th District

Mackenzie's 2024 margin: +1.0

Trump's 2024 margin: +3.2

Race Rating: Tilt Democratic

Mackenzie, a mainstay on this list all cycle, faces a difficult reelection in a perennial Lehigh Valley battleground district. The freshman lawmaker faces Democrat Bob Brooks, a firefighter union president whom recent polls have shown to be in the lead. Outside groups have spent more than $18 million on the race, and Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to campaign in the district in the final week of the campaign. Latino voters who helped swing the district toward Republicans two years ago will be crucial, but the race could also be a test of Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s ability to help boost swing-seat Democrats.

8. Scott Perry (R)

Pennsylvania's 10th District

Perry's 2024 margin: +1.2

Trump's 2024 margin: +5.3

Race Rating: Toss-up

Perry makes his debut on the list with the former Freedom Caucus chairman locked in a tight rematch from 2024 against former broadcast news journalist Janelle Stelson. Polls have shown a close race for the Harrisburg-area district, where Perry has won a string of contested reelection fights. Johnson is also expected to make a stop in the district this week. The race was rocked earlier this month when the Department of Homeland Security alleged that it had arrested a man working for Stelson for indecent exposure, while Stelson’s team said the individual was never employed by the campaign.

9. Juan Ciscomani (R)

Arizona's 6th District

Ciscomani's 2024 margin: +2.5

Trump's 2024 margin: +0.7

Race Rating: Toss-up

Ciscomani, the first naturalized citizen from Mexico to represent Arizona in the House, has made Trump’s tax cuts a centerpiece of his campaign. But his Democratic opponent, Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza, says he’s embraced policies that have hurt the district’s rural hospitals and driven up costs. Mendoza has been a prolific fundraiser, bringing in $11.2 million through Oct. 14 to Ciscomani’s $7.6 million. The race has also played host to a proxy spending battle between Elon Musk’s America PAC and Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund, which is largely funded by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

10. Zach Nunn (R)

Iowa's 3rd District

Nunn's 2024 margin: +3.9

Trump's 2024 margin: +4.4

Race Rating: Tilt Democratic

Nunn drops five spots on our final list, though he remains vulnerable in his Des Moines-centered district. His Democratic opponent, Sarah Trone Garriott, is a Lutheran minister and state senator with a track record of flipping competitive seats. The Iran war and tariffs have pushed up prices for fertilizer and diesel fuel, key components of the farming state’s economy, and last month, Nunn broke with GOP leaders and backed a resolution to require congressional approval to continue the war. Nunn has pitched himself to voters as a pragmatist willing to work with Democrats, but Trone Garriott says he has failed to hold Trump accountable.

—Ryan Kelly contributed to this report.