Bettors back Trump to run again, win 2028 presidential election

Todd Dewey, Las Vegas Review-Journal on Jun 26, 2025

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LAS VEGAS — President Donald Trump’s 2028 election betting odds improved this week after he launched airstrikes against Iran and subsequently saw a U.S. military base attacked by Iran, then announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

BetOnline.ag reports that wagers on Trump amid the Middle East mayhem caused odds to move in his favor on betting markets to be included on the 2028 Iowa caucus ballot, to win the Republican nomination and to win the presidential election.

Trump’s odds to win the White House again shifted from 10-1 to the 6-1 second choice behind Vice President JD Vance, the +250 favorite.

Trump’s odds to be the Republican nominee moved from 6-1 to the +350 second pick behind Vance, the +120 favorite. Trump’s odds to be included on the Iowa caucus ballot improved from 5-1 to 3-1.

“A potential world war, highly likely ongoing global instability, mass protests and division across the USA … make it likelier that a state of emergency could be called, or that Trump could use the unique circumstances to consolidate power,” BetOnline political oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty said.

To be clear, Krishnamurty said Trump would need to win the election or be on the Iowa/general election ballot to pay out on each respective market.

That would mean amending the U.S. Constitution that limits presidents to two terms in office.

“This is exactly what part of the conversation is,” Krishnamurty told the Review-Journal. “Many of his opponents believe he wants to be dictator for life, that his agenda, e.g. Project 2025, is a power grab, that he wants to emulate (Russian leader Vladimir) Putin, (Chinese leader) Xi (Jinping) and (North Korean dictator) Kim Jong (Un), whom he frequently praises. And on his own side, Steve Bannon says he can and will run again. Lindsay Graham implied the same.

“Therefore, it would, in my view, be wrong to exclude the possibility. Others believe those arguments are nonsense, that the status quo will prevail, and we are offering a ‘No’ option in these markets.”

The offshore sportsbook, which isn’t regulated in the U.S., offers yes-no props on whether Trump will be on the Iowa caucus ballot and the general election ballot.

Will Trump be on the Iowa caucus ballot? No is a -500 favorite, and yes is a +300 underdog. Will Trump be on the general election ballot? No is -600, and yes is +350.

A negative number represents how much a bettor needs to wager to win $100. In this case, a bettor would have to wager $600 to win $100 that Trump will not be on the general election ballot in 2028. A positive number represents how much a person would profit from a $100 bet. In this case, a bettor would need to wager $100 to win $350 that Trump will be on the ballot.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the 8-1 third choice to win the 2028 presidential election.

If the two-term limit is repealed, that would also open the door for former two-term presidents Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush to run again. Obama, 63, is 50-1 at BetOnline to win the 2028 election. Clinton, 78, is 500-1. Bush, 78, is not listed.

Trump, 79, isn’t listed in the presidential odds at electionbettingodds.com, though the site gives “other” candidates a 34.5 percent chance to be elected. Those implied odds equate to the +190 favorite.

The site, which averages live odds from Polymarket.com, Kalshi.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org and Smarkets.com, does list Trump as the second choice to win the 2028 Republican nomination behind Vance.

Vance has a 41.5% chance (+141) to be the nominee, while Trump has a 7.5% chance (+1,233).

Vance has a 24.1% chance (+315) to be president. Newsom is second with a 7.4% chance (+1,251). Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democratic congresswoman from New York, is the third choice to win the White House with a 6.5% chance (+1,438).

Betting on politics isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks.

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