Trump money comes to Florida's elections, new data shows

Ashley Borja, Tampa Bay Times on Sep 16, 2026

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TAMPA, Fla. — As the midterm election season enters its home stretch, President Donald Trump is throwing a financial lifeline to Republican congressional candidates across the country. That includes two in Florida, seeking to defeat Democratic incumbents Kathy Castor and Darren Soto.

Since Sept. 4, No Going Back PAC Inc. — a new super PAC with funds tied to Trump’s main one — has spent $222,000 on the two Florida races.

Super PACs are committees that can raise money without limits but cannot coordinate directly with candidates or parties.

The committee has spent over $151,000 in less than two weeks to help former state Rep. Mike Beltran challenge Castor in District 14, which was recently redrawn to include redder Hillsborough County suburbs along with South and West Tampa.

And another $70,000 is boosting Dan Green’s effort to unseat Rep. Darren Soto in District 9, which stretches from Orlando to Lake Okeechobee.

Campaign finance records show the committee has used the money for direct mail advertising. National Republicans have said they are targeting both seats this election.

The president has more than $400 million in his main MAGA Inc. committee, according to the latest financial records, and has said he plans to spend $400 million to $500 million to bolster Republicans.

Though Trump’s approval ratings have slumped this year amid rising inflation and gas prices, Republicans are still counting on him — both for his sway over the MAGA base and his control of that vast war chest.

The Florida districts chosen indicate the uphill battle the party faces.

Trump won the district Castor and Beltran seek by 10 percentage points in 2024, but experts don’t consider his party favored there now. The Cook Political Report recently moved its rating from a ‘Republican lean’ to a ‘toss up’ and says the seat is still winnable for the Democratic incumbent. Election modeler Nate Silver gives Beltran just a 15% chance to take it.

Trump won the new District 9 by 18 points. Cook rates it ‘likely Republican,’ and Silver calls it 50-50.

A new national poll from The New York Times and Siena University found likely voters favor Democrats over Republicans in their districts by nine percentage points in this year’s congressional races.

Silver’s model finds it likely that Democrats gain control of the House. Every potential edge will matter for the GOP. Trump has gone so far as to pledge to give $5,000 to every American adult if the GOP retains control of both the House and Senate.

No Going Back PAC Inc. also launched a video ad this week on Google and YouTube targeting Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, according to the tech company. National Republicans are eyeing Moskowitz’s seat, District 25 in South Florida, as well.

Google data shows the committee paid them between $2,000 and $2,900 in two days. The spending had not yet been reflected in federal campaign finance reports.