Lula, Bolsonaro in dead heat amid fresh Banco Master revelations

Andrew Rosati, Bloomberg News on Sep 24, 2026

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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro are deadlocked less than two weeks before Brazil’s election, a new poll showed, following fresh revelations about the challenger’s ties to a jailed banker at the center of a massive fraud scheme.

Lula would win 47% to Bolsonaro’s 45% in a runoff scenario, according to a Datafolha survey published Thursday. The result falls within the poll’s 2-percentage-point margin of error and was little changed from last week’s survey from the same pollster, which also showed the incumbent with a 2-point lead.

Polls have consistently pointed to a tight race. An AtlastIntel survey released Wednesday showed the candidates tied at 47%.

But a string of news reports ahead of the Oct. 4 first-round vote has cast fresh light on Bolsonaro’s relationship with Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master SA. The once high-flying banker cultivated ties with Brazil’s political elite while pursuing an aggressive growth strategy that authorities allege relied heavily on financial misconduct.

Earlier on Thursday, newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo reported that Bolsonaro sent messages to Vorcaro and attempted to call him in the days before the businessman’s arrest last November, shortly before authorities moved to liquidate his bank.

Bolsonaro, 45, previously sought funding from Vorcaro for a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, but has denied wrongdoing. Federal police are probing the dealings for possible crimes including corruption and money laundering.

Earlier this week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro traveled in early 2025 from Florida to Brasília on a jet owned by Vorcaro.

Bolsonaro’s campaign didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment, but the senator told news outlet O Globo that the flight was part of a family trip and he wasn’t aware the aircraft belonged to Vorcaro.

Much of the Datafolha survey was conducted before the latest revelations.

In recent weeks, the conservative challenger has gained ground in the contest while seeking to tie Lula to a powerful Supreme Court justice authorities allege was in contact with Vorcaro.

While Lula, 80, is not directly implicated in the scandal, he has rushed to regain momentum in the final days of the campaign. Last week, he increased benefits under the government’s flagship social welfare program.

In a first-round scenario, Lula’s support stood at 40% compared to Bolsonaro’s 36%, Datafolha found. If neither candidate secures a majority on Oct. 4, a runoff will occur three weeks later.

Datafolha interviewed 2,002 people on Sept. 22-23.

(Daniel Carvalho contributed to this report.)