BALTIMORE — U.S. Rep. Andy Harris, a Republican, remains favored to win another term, but a contentious debate and confrontation with a reporter have given Democratic challenger Dan Schwartz fresh attention as Maryland voters prepare to cast early ballots.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election-forecasting newsletter at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, moved the 1st District race Tuesday from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Its managing editor, Kyle Kondik, said the change flagged a possible upset in an unusually strong Democratic year, rather than a race Harris is expected to lose. Early voting starts Thursday in Maryland.

“Despite a bad environment and some rocky news coverage, Harris should still be fine,” Kondik said.

Harris won 59.42% of the vote in 2024, but his latest reelection campaign drew national scrutiny after the Oct. 13 debate in Cambridge. He rebuked audience members who interrupted him and laughed as he blamed Democratic environmental regulations for rising diesel prices. Afterward, he threatened to refer Capital News Service reporter Cat Murphy to a prosecutor for recording him during a press exchange. The encounters drew national coverage.

Harris did not address a question from The Baltimore Sun about whether he stood by his assertion that Murphy could not record him.

In a written response, Harris pointed to his vote for last year’s tax-cut legislation and voiced support for tighter eligibility and work requirements for Medicaid and food assistance. He said those changes preserve resources for people who qualify and cited more than $200 million in community project funding over four years as a reason voters would reelect him.

Schwartz’s campaign said its closing economic argument centers on ending President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which it says raise costs for families, businesses and farmers.

Campaign manager Ron Deb said Schwartz received nearly 3,400 donations after the debate, compared with fewer than 600 during an equivalent period beforehand. He did not specify the dates, dollar totals or how many donations came from district residents.

The campaign’s July 23-27 poll of 482 likely voters, conducted by Z to A Research, initially put Harris ahead 52% to 39%, Deb said. He also cited an “informed ballot” result from that time period — responses after voters received additional information — showing Schwartz at 45%, Harris at 44% and 9% undecided. Deb did not provide the wording of that information. Both results predate the debate, and neither campaign supplied a newer district poll in its response.

Both candidates oppose Question 3, a ballot question that, if approved, would remove state constitutional criteria for congressional district boundaries. It would not redraw this year’s map.

Harris said opposition would motivate Republican voters. Maryland Republican Party Chairwoman Nicole Beus Harris, his wife, said residents across party lines had thanked him for securing federal funding.

“District 1 voters know that Andy Harris delivers for the district and they will deliver for him on November 3rd,” she said.

Schwartz said Democrats should earn the seat through campaigning.

“If we can’t win here by showing up and fighting to earn votes, we have bigger problems as a party,” he said.

Desmond Stuart, co-chair of the Wicomico County Democratic Central Committee, said Schwartz’s opposition to redistricting and calmer demeanor were helping him reach independents. Stuart offered observations, rather than voter-contact figures, and acknowledged Republicans’ registration advantage.

Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, said the publicity helped Schwartz, but winning would still require a strong national Democratic wave.

“I think what should keep him up at night are the combined impacts of high diesel prices and tariffs on farmers on the Eastern Shore,” Eberly said of Harris.

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