7 Election Day takeaways for Washington state as vote counts continue

SEATTLE — Ballots are still rolling in across the Evergreen State but initial results paint a very pretty picture for Washington Democrats, excepting one potential win for conservatives.

While most incumbents were always expected to cruise into new terms, contests that were expected to be close — a congressional race in Southwest Washington’s 3rd District and several legislative races— saw Democrats comfortably ahead after Tuesday’s vote count. Democrats now hope to flip an Eastern Washington congressional seat long thought to be safely Republican.

Voters also weighed in on contentious initiatives, including efforts to ban transgender girls from girls sports and repeal the “millionaires tax” on high-income Washingtonians. The state Supreme Court contest saw record spending and political friction uncharacteristic of the usually staid race.

The Seattle Times’ journalists across the state and in the newsroom enjoyed a front-row seat to the political drama. Here’s what they saw Tuesday:

Democrats dominated

Across the nation Tuesday night, congressional Republicans took a broad shellacking, with Democratic strength reaching into districts and states that weeks ago had not even been considered competitive. That dynamic held true in Washington, where U.S. Rep. Michael Baumgartner, R-Spokane, clung to a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy.

When the two faced off two years ago for the same 5th District seat, Baumgartner won by more than 20 percentage points. On Tuesday, the congressman led by about 1 point, with tens of thousands of votes still to be counted.

Next door, in Central Washington’s 4th Congressional District, Republican Amanda McKinney led Democrat John Duresky by about 8 percentage points. That’s a tight race in a district where former Republican U.S. Rep. Dan Newhouse in 2022 bested his Democratic challenger by about 35 percentage points.

Not so close in Southwest Washington

U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez cruised to reelection in Washington’s swing 3rd District on Tuesday night by 11 percentage points.

It’s a significant departure from congressional races in the 3rd; Gluesenkamp Perez clinched her seat by a margin of 1% in 2022, and 4% in 2024.

Voters split on kids

Initiative 001 and Initiative 638 both dealt with Washington’s schools. Both were advanced by a conservative political action committee. Both involved debates about transgender students.

But I-001, a parental rights measure, was trailing by about 6 percentage points in Tuesday night’s results, while I-638, a ban on transgender girls playing girls school sports, was passing by about 14 points.

So, at least some voters saw distinctions between the two measures.

I-001 would require schools to give parents access to more student records and notify them about more student activities. Although it wasn’t wholly about trans students, some supporters expressed concerns about schools keeping parents in the dark about kids identifying as trans. Opponents expressed concerns about I-001 outing LBGTQ+ students against their wishes.

I-638 was unambiguously about trans students, with supporters making an argument about fairness in girls sports and opponents pushing back.

Republicans largely supported both initiatives and Democrats largely opposed both, but one seems to have resonated with voters more than the other.

Progressives may have their tax Holy Grail

Washington progressives may have finally succeeded in grasping their long-sought tax Holy Grail.

If it holds as more votes are counted, the apparent rejection of Initiative 645, which would’ve discarded a Legislature-passed tax on high-income residents, builds on Democrats’ decadeslong quest to throw off limits on their taxing powers.

They got rid of a supermajority vote requirement for tax increases with a 2013 Supreme Court ruling. In 2022, they passed a capital gains tax on investment profits, and it was upheld by courts and voters.

But an actual income tax — even on millionaires — was seen as politically impossible just a few years ago. Tuesday’s vote stands in sharp contrast to 10 previous income tax rejections by voters.

Now, the quest moves to the courts, where a lawsuit asks for the tax to be thrown out based on a Depression-era state Supreme Court precedent.

If it clears that hurdle, a state income tax will be a reality come 2028. The only remaining question is whether it will stick — especially in the long run — to just millionaires.

Seattle transit got some love, and money

Seattle voters showed their continued devotion to transit, as the Seattle Transit Measure drew big support in the first count of ballots.

The 10-year, $1.4 billion measure is the second renewal— and expansion — of a city sales tax dedicated to growing bus service. The original measure came in 2014, and was first renewed during the dark days of the pandemic in 2020, when voters gave it a robust 80% of the vote.

This year’s measure also comes after two-thirds of city voters in 2024 approved a $1.55 billion transportation levy, which is helping fund transit work and was also the third in a line of transportation levies on property taxes, from 2006 and 2015.

So, if voter devotion to buses is tempered by anything, it’s not higher taxes.

A partisan court?

Four out of five state Supreme Court candidates broadly backed by left-of-center state leaders were ahead in their respective races Tuesday, as Washington voters appeared to reject a push to distance the court from the Democratic Party.

The most contentious, politicized race this year was unsurprisingly the closest. King County Judge Sean O’Donnell, who was supported by the state’s Republican Party, narrowly led Democrat-backed Court of Appeals Judge Ian Birk.

In what shaped up to be the most expensive judicial race this year, O’Donnell attempted to paint himself as the truly nonpartisan candidate. He was also endorsed by several prominent Democrats.

With the potential to shake up the nine-member court, millions of dollars poured into candidates’ campaigns. Well-oiled political action committees funded attack ads in what are supposedly “nonpartisan” elections. With the so-called “millionaires tax” — which voters were poised to uphold Tuesday night — almost certain to appear before the court, the stakes are high.

Get ready for super Dems in Olympia

Washington House Democrats are close to gaining a supermajority after Tuesday night’s vote counts, with Republicans trailing in several districts where they have long held control.

While state Democrats were more focused on flipping key legislative districts including in Southwest Washington and Kitsap County, other legislative races appeared to be more competitive for Republicans in districts where they have largely gone unchallenged.

House Democrats will need to gain control of seven seats to secure a two-thirds supermajority; as of Tuesday, Democratic challengers were ahead in eight races against Republican incumbents. Democrats were also ahead in an open House seat in the 26th Legislative District held by a Republican who announced she would be leaving the Legislature earlier this year.

Ballots will continue to be counted in the coming days, so results could change. State election officials expect to release fresh results at 4 p.m. each day until all ballots are counted.

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—Seattle Times reporters Joe O’Sullivan, Anumita Kaur, Jim Brunner, Dan Beekman, Lauren Girgis, Ryan Nguyen, Shauna Sowersby and Nick Deshais contributed to this story.