Mike Vorel: Why the 2025 Seahawks will be better than analysts, oddsmakers think

RENTON, Wash. — There’s a national consensus surrounding the 2025 Seahawks.

It’s that they’re not very good.

So say the sportsbooks, which set Seattle’s over/under for wins at either 7.5 (FanDuel, Bally) or 8.5 (BetMGM). And ESPN’s Football Power Index projection metric, which assigned the Seahawks an FPI of minus-1.4 — 21st in the NFL and last in the NFC West. And NFL.com analyst Eric Edholm, who slotted Seattle 19th (and last in the NFC West) in his post-draft power rankings. And ESPN analyst Benjamin Solak, who listed the Seahawks as one of the NFL’s three least improved teams — and in doing so said this:

“The Seahawks’ offseason got a ton of coverage, so we don’t need to rehash it all. But when Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf leave the building for Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, you’re downgraded in my eyes.”

Nationally, a whole lot of eyes are seeing the same thing in Seattle.

Which, yes, is unsurprising.

It also feels like a lazy take.

Because that take accepts Solak’s assessment — i.e., that Smith, Metcalf and Lockett are superior to Darnold, Kupp and Valdes-Scantling — and ignores everything else. It egregiously ignores Seattle’s ascending defense, which improved from 30th in the NFL in total defense (371.4 yards allowed per game) and 25th in scoring (23.6 points allowed per game) in 2023 to 14th (332.7 yards) and 11th (21.6 points) in coach Mike Macdonald’s debut.

It ignores the glaring likelihood that they will be even better.

“Everybody on my side of the ball wants the defense to be the reason why [we win],” nose tackle Jarran Reed said Monday, after the Seahawks kicked off their second week of OTAs (organized team activities). “Defense wins championships. Offense wins games. It is what it is. We want to put the team on our back. We want to be the one and want to be the reason we win.”

The national consensus ignores a cavalcade of context. Like the expected strides from a defense that returns 10 of 11 starters, rare continuity. Like the effect run-stuffing linebacker Ernest Jones IV can have in his first full season in Seattle. Like the possibility that former first-round pick Byron Murphy II flourishes alongside Leonard Williams in his second season. Like the positive impact new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak could have on the Seahawks’ ability to run the ball and protect the passer. Like a running back room overflowing with eligible options.

Like Seattle’s schedule, which is eighth-easiest in the NFL according to ESPN.

Like a more experienced, decisive Macdonald in his second season at the helm.

Which is why it feels flimsy to judge primarily on the quarterback and the playmaking wide receiver.

But I get it: Smith, Metcalf and Lockett were the Seahawks’ most nationally visible names, and they’re no longer here. It’s also plenty possible that Darnold and Kupp fail to keep pace with their predecessors.

After all, Darnold’s overdue breakout — 4,319 passing yards, 66.2% completions and 35 touchdowns last season with Minnesota — was muffled by the sound of screeching tires. The former No. 3 overall draft pick imploded in his last two games, completing 53.1% of his passes while throwing for one touchdown and one interception and taking 11 sacks. He was perceived as a talented passer who panicked under pressure.

Whether you believe in the 27-year-old’s talent and untapped potential, or think his first six uninspiring seasons are who he’s bound to be, Monday’s practice supported both ends of the argument. On the Seahawks’ first scrimmage rep, Darnold delicately dropped an 8-yard touchdown pass to Kupp down the seam, then punctuated it with a subtle fist pump.

But in a 7-on-7 red zone drill, Darnold stumbled, surrendering two interceptions in his first three throws. He attempted to force a pass to Kupp that safety Julian Love pounced on, before cornerback Josh Jobe beat wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the ball in a scramble drill as well.

It’s one practice, a puny sample size. But for a player whose 12 interceptions were fourth-most in the NFL in 2024, that first impression also felt familiar.

As for Kupp? The soon-to-be 32-year-old is still productive, when he plays. But after tallying a combined 33 games in his past three seasons, the Eastern Washington alum must prove he can remain available alongside Smith-Njigba, Valdes-Scantling, Jake Bobo and fifth-round pick Tory Horton.

There are also lingering questions on the offensive line, where first-round pick Grey Zabel was installed Monday as the Seahawks’ starting left guard. After surrendering the third-most sacks (54) in the NFL last season, Seattle failed to upgrade its front in free agency — and will instead depend on the development of Zabel, centers Olu Oluwatimi and Jalen Sundell and right guards Christian Haynes and Anthony Bradford.

Ultimately, I believe a healthy Kupp can mirror Metcalf’s impact (in the short-term, at least). I believe Seattle’s offensive line will improve, almost by default. I believe the Seahawks backslid at quarterback … and still might be better.

I believe setting their over/under at 7.5 wins is silly.

But it’s on the supposedly downgraded Seahawks to open eyes.

“We don’t pay attention to what Vegas is talking about. We just worry about what we got going on in our building,” Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon said. “They’re going to do whatever they got to do, and we’re going to do what we got to do. So they can say whatever they want.”