Tom Krasovic: Eagles should be favored by more, but Patrick Mahomes tips scales on odds

Tom Krasovic, The San Diego Union-Tribune on Sep 13, 2025

Published in Football

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SAN DIEGO — In one key area, nothing’s changed since the Super Bowl.

The Eagles, compared to the Chiefs, still have more high-end talent, raising the question why oddmakers now favor Philadelphia by just 1 1/2 points in Sunday’s rematch.

The answer begins with Patrick Mahomes. He’s worth a touchdown on betting lines. Last week, in his team’s season’s opening loss, Mahomes’ playmaking kept the Chargers from blowing out the Chiefs.

Also, it’s noisy in Kansas City, where the Chiefs were home favorites in 22 straight games before this one. Even in favorable conditions for blockers, Chiefs blitzes are tricky to negate.

Arguing further against a lopsided game, two Eagles defenders who wrecked Kansas City’s blocking in the Super Bowl have moved on.

The more talented defense nevertheless is in Philadelphia.

Rookie Jihaad Campbell already resembles an NFL hammer who can team up with Zack Baun, an All-Pro at linebacker last year. Campbell, the 31st pick in April, forced a crucial fumble by the Cowboys.

Kan City's defense has felt the salary cap’s squeeze, too, but might benefit from the loud crowd.

What I see as a decisive fact: On offense, there’s more star talent wearing green.

The Eagles boast the NFL’s best blocker and running back, in right tackle Lane Johnson and Saquon Barkley.

A.J. Brown is a true No. 1 receiver. Five other starters stand as players who are very good or good: quarterback Jaylen Hurts, left tackle Jordan Mailata, left guard Landon Dickerson, receiver DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert.

So here, the Eagles look three to seven points better. But Mahomes Magic is real.

In Las Vegas, meantime, comes the “Hum Baby Bowl”.

“Hum Baby” was the mantra of Roger Craig, a former big league pitcher and manager of the Padres and Giants. Justin Herbert and Geno Smith are hum-baby passers.

Herbert, 27, made the football field in Brazil look small. He finished 25 of 34 for 313 yards and three touchdowns, leading his team to the 27-21 win.

Smith, 34, zinged a few special throws well downfield, too, in his Raiders debut.

True to a Norv Turner teaching point, Herbert and Smith wing it far without elongating their delivery. This improves accuracy. Sometimes, it causes defenders to underestimate the spiral’s carry.

Fun thought experiment: pair Herbert with Chargers Hall of Fame tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. running deep seams in his prime, and Smith with Raiders Hall of Fame receiver Cliff Branch — a blur — on go routes and in-breaking deep routes,

Notable

Quarterback C.J. Stroud isn’t blameless in the Texans’ severe pass-protection issues dating to last year. Former NFL blocker Geoff Schwartz, in a video breakdown, showed that a Rams safety’s sack of Stroud last week may have been on Stroud not adjusting the protection. …

On the judicial front, both the Chiefs and Eagles lucked out in recent weeks. Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice should’ve been suspended for far longer than six games for his role last year in a multi-car crash in 2024 that left multiple people injured. According to the Dallas Morning News, Rice lost control while racing on a Dallas highway, causing a multi-vehicle hit-and-run. Rice was sentenced 30 days in jail and five years’ probation.

Before the Eagles’ first defensive snap of the season, Jalen Carter spat on Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. The NFL ruled that his ejection served as a suspension, enabling him to start against the Chiefs. Ahead of the 2023 draft, many NFL analysts graded Carter as the No. 1 prospect. But some NFL teams chose not to draft him in the top 10 after he pleaded no contest to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing related to a fatal crash in January 2023 that killed two people. The Eagles took him ninth, and in his second NFL season, Carter played a big role in their Super Bowl-winning season.

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