John Clay: Saturday's Belmont Stakes is worthy of a large viewership. Will it get it?

John Clay, Lexington Herald-Leader on Jun 5, 2025

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LEXINGTON, Ky. — Earlier this week, I got a call from a reporter at a publication that covers sports gambling. He was working on a story about what he perceived as an increase in interest in horse racing.

Tuesday, on the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s teleconference, a reporter asked Michael Banahan, Godolphin’s United States director of bloodstock, about a premise that horse racing was drawing younger fans.

Saturday could give us a little more insight to whether those premises are true.

Saturday is the 157th running of the Belmont Stakes in New York. With Belmont Park still undergoing renovation, the race will be run for a second straight year at Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York. Because of Saratoga’s track configuration, the race will again be run at a mile-and-a-quarter instead of its traditional mile-and-a-half distance at Belmont Park.

For the second straight year, the race will be run without a Triple Crown in play. Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Mystik Dan, finished second in the Preakness, the second leg of the crown. This year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty, skipped the Baltimore race entirely.

Only this year is different. For the first time since 2013, the top three Kentucky Derby finishers are in the Belmont field. That includes Sovereignty, coming off a five-week layoff. That also includes Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Journalism. That also includes Baeza, the third-place finisher in the Derby, but who might have been running fastest of all 19 when he hit the wire.

The television ratings for this year’s Kentucky Derby were the best since 1989. Alas, minus the Derby winner, the Preakness experienced a 15.7% decline from viewership in 2024.

What will the viewership numbers be Saturday? On the one hand, there is no Triple Crown bid to attract the attention of the casual fan. On the other hand, this year’s Belmont boasts a first-class field with, as Sovereignty trainer Bill Mott would say, some serious racehorses.

Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism was the favorite at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Trained by Michael McCarthy, the colt ran well in the Derby. Sovereignty ran a bit better.

Two weeks later, Journalism ran a Preakness for the ages. Bottled up in traffic, jockey Umberto Rispoli was able to squeeze the son of Curlin through a narrow hole between horses before continuing on to victory. If there were those who doubted Journalism’s talent before, surely they were gone after his Pimlico performance.

Sovereignty is no slouch, either. A Goldolphin homebred, he confirmed his excellent breeding with his Kentucky Derby win. Mott is a Hall of Fame trainer who knows the ins and outs of Saratoga as well as anyone. With the added rest, Sovereignty could be tough to beat.

Then there’s Baeza, a $1.2 million purchase at the 2023 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. The son of McKinzie is trained by the 80-year-old John Shirreffs, who despite being based in California was quick to point out Tuesday he considers himself a native New Yorker.

“The Belmont is so historic, and the race is historic, so it would be just wonderful to win the Belmont,” said Shirreffs, who was born in Kansas but grew up on Long Island.

There are other contenders in the eight-horse field. Trained by Bob Baffert, Rodriguez looks to be the early speed. Saturday would not be the first time a Baffert horse set the early pace in the Belmont and continued on to victory. He’s won the race three times.

Keep an eye on Peter Pan winner Hill Road, trained by Chad Brown. He ran third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He has raced just twice this year, finishing third in the Tampa Bay Derby before his May 10 win in the Peter Pan.

“He’s been looking for a mile-and-a-quarter for some time, so I hope that works in his favor,” Brown said Tuesday. “The unfortunate thing is you already have proven mile-and-a-quarter horses in the race, and they’re really good ones.”

Ones worthy of a large viewing audience. We’ll see if this year’s Belmont Stakes gets it.