A presidential election in Poland between Warsaw’s centrist mayor and a nationalist backed by Donald Trump was too close to call late Sunday, with exit polls showing a dead heat.

Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and former boxer, moved ahead with 50.7%, while Rafal Trzaskowski took 49.3%, according to an updated exit poll released on Sunday. A first poll had the centrist ahead. Results will be tallied through the night, with official results due early Monday.

The ballot will determine whether one of the EU’s fastest-growing economies and one of NATO’s biggest defense spenders remains a reliable partner within the 27-member bloc, which is under mounting pressure from Trump’s tariffs and Russia’s threat to the east. The exit polls laid bare the polarization that’s gripped the nation of 37 million, with issues such as migration, abortion and European integration sharply dividing voters.

Both candidates predicted victory soon after polls closed.

“I am convinced that this will allow us to move on,” Trzaskowski told jubilant supporters in Warsaw, even as the nationalist declared that “we will wake up tomorrow with President Karol Nawrocki.”

At stake is the agenda of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose coalition ousted Poland’s nationalists in 2023. Their eight years in power brought scrutiny from Brussels over the rule of law and raised questions about Poland’s allegiance to the liberal West. A Nawrocki win could jeopardize Tusk’s ambition to return Poland to the EU mainstream and maintain bloc funding.

Tusk’s program has been stalled by outgoing President Andrzej Duda, a nationalist ally. A victory for Trzaskowski would remove that obstacle.

The ballot came two weeks after voters in Romania’s presidential election delivered a victory for another centrist mayor, Nicusor Dan of Bucharest, over a Trump-aligned far-right candidate, showing the limits of the MAGA appeal in Europe.

The exit polls, carried out for the country’s three main television networks, estimated turnout at 71.7%, compared with a record 74.4% during parliamentary elections two years ago and 68.2% in the last presidential runoff in 2020.

The two candidates encapsulated the nation’s divide: Trzaskowski, the polyglot son of a jazz musician, against Nawrocki, who heads the Institute for National Remembrance, which investigates Nazi and communist-era crimes.

The vote has effectively become a referendum on Poland’s future, including its role in Europe, women’s rights, national identity and assistance to neighboring Ukraine.

It’s also a reality check for revved-up Polish assets, which have broadly rallied since Tusk’s alliance won power two years ago. Warsaw’s WIG20 stock index jumped 61% in dollar terms since the last parliamentary election, while government bonds returned 28%, most among emerging markets after South Africa and Thailand.

While Tusk is admired abroad as the man who took on populism and won, his popularity at home has been waning because of disillusionment over his ability to deliver.

Nawrocki received direct help from the White House, having visited Trump briefly in Washington last month. On a visit to Poland last week, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem urged Poles to vote for Nawrocki to ensure Poland enjoys close ties with Trump.

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(With assistance from Piotr Bujnicki.)

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