It’s the offseason, a time to sell hope and optimism mixed with a bit of reality, so here’s a scenario to consider: There’s a legit, logical way that the Dolphins finish with 10, 11 or even 12 wins this season.

Admittedly, it’s unlikely.

But there are three keys to getting 10, 11 and 12 wins, we’ll discuss each after setting the backdrop.

Many Las Vegas sportsbooks have the Dolphins’ over/under win total at 8.5 wins.

I’m on record as saying the Dolphins are headed for a 9-8 season.

And, yes, that’s considering the uncertain roster situation involving cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

We’ll assume it’ll take 11 wins to earn a playoff berth (although the Dolphins got in with nine wins in 2022), and 12 wins to get a home playoff game (although Kansas City won 11 games in 2023 and hosted the Dolphins).

It would take a whole lot of good things to happen for the Dolphins to reach 12 wins, a level this franchise hasn’t reached since 1990.

However, there’s an outside chance a whole lot of good things could happen.

Let’s start here ...

Let’s say quarterback Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy for all 17 games, which he did in 2023, and edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips both reach 100% health/performance in their recoveries from their knee injuries.

Further, let’s say the Dolphins’ secondary, which is the team’s biggest weakness, plays to a letter grade of “C” for the regular season, and the same goes for the offensive line, another area of concern.

If those things happen, there’s a path for the Dolphins to win 10, 11 or 12 games and here are the three keys:

Win at Buffalo

I’m expecting the Dolphins to get swept by the Bills. Buffalo dominates the Dolphins. The Bills, led by Superman/quarterback Josh Allen, are 6-1 against the Dolphins since 2022 in the Mike McDaniel era. Plus, this Week 3 matchup, on Sept. 18 at Buffalo, is a Thursday night road game for the Dolphins.

That’s a bad combination.

Tua must outshine Allen, and either wide receiver Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle must put up a 100-yard game. Neither has done that against the Bills in the McDaniel era. Or, a good game by young edge rusher Chop Robinson could be the key to a win.

The good news is a September game in Buffalo greatly reduces the risk of snow and extreme cold. The Dolphins must take advantage.

When you consider the Dolphins exceeding their projected win total, steal this one and 10 wins should be a given.

Go 2-1 vs. Baltimore, Buffalo and Washington

Most would agree the Dolphins will go 1-2 during the midseason three-game stretch against Baltimore, Buffalo and Washington. But with a little bit of luck they could go 2-1 in this stretch and steal another game to reach 11 wins. Let’s examine this trio of games.

The Dolphins host Baltimore on Oct. 30, which means this is a Thursday night road game for the Ravens, who host Chicago four days earlier. The Dolphins are 18-7 (.720) at Hard Rock Stadium in the McDaniel era. You’ll take this win any way possible. Maybe the defense limits Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry, or maybe the Dolphins’ running game, led by running back De’Von Achane and the offensive line, has a big day.

The Dolphins host Buffalo on Nov. 9, and the Dolphins will be coming off an extended rest because they played on Thursday the previous week. Buffalo, on the other hand, will be coming off a game against rugged Kansas City. The Dolphins defeated Buffalo, 21-19, at Hard Rock Stadium in 2022. This is a good time for the Dolphins’ defense to limit/stop Allen and knock off the Bills. It’d also be a good time for McDaniel to outcoach Buffalo’s Sean McDermott in some way.

The Dolphins play Washington and hotshot quarterback Jayden Daniels in Madrid, Spain, on Nov. 19. This would be a good time for the Dolphins’ secondary to make a statement. Washington added wide receiver Deebo Samuel to go alongside wide receiver Terry McLaurin. Or, perhaps it’s the Dolphins’ defensive front seven that leads the way. Whatever the case, if the Dolphins enter this game with wins over Baltimore and Buffalo (in either Bills matchup) under their belts, you’d have to favor the Dolphins in this game.

Win at Steelers

The Dolphins visit Pittsburgh and quarterback Aaron Rodgers on Dec. 15, a Monday night.

A victory here fights back against many narratives about the Dolphins, among them: can’t win on the road, can’t win on the road in December, Tua can’t win in cold weather, Dolphins struggle in prime-time games in the McDaniel era (4-10 record).

Perhaps a late-game field goal by kicker Jason Sanders ices the win. Or perhaps the Dolphins win this game in the trenches with rookie defensive tackle Kenneth Grant, the first-round pick, or rookie guard Jonah Savaiinaea, the second-round pick, showing tremendous growth.

December is a brutal month for the Dolphins with games at the New York Jets (Dec. 7), at Pittsburgh (Dec. 15), against Cincinnati (Dec. 21) and against Tampa Bay (Dec. 28).

Conventional wisdom says the Dolphins go 2-2 in December. Steal a victory in Pittsburgh, and 12 wins is foreseeable.

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