How debates might reshape California's unsettled race for governor

With a good chunk of the California electorate still undecided on who they want to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, this week’s debates presented the seven leading candidates with a chance to make their case as ballots arrived in mailboxes. But like other recent debates, political experts are dubious as to whether anyone was swayed.

“There’s been no standout performances, there’s been no big gaffes, nothing to move the needle in any way,” veteran Democratic consultant Steven Maviglio said. “I think voters are going to hold back their ballots to the bitter end in this topsy turvy race.”

Polls from Emerson College, SurveyUSA and CBS conducted within the last month have shown that anywhere from 17% to 26% of likely voters remain undecided. In that time, a majority of the leading candidates have taken part in four televised debates, with two this week on back-to-back nights hosted by CNN and NBC 4/Telemundo 52.

This week, the five Democratic candidates — former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer, former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa — showed the sharpest contrast on issues like single-payer healthcare and a proposed tax on the state’s billionaires that will likely be on the November ballot.

Progressives like Steyer and Porter have come out in favor of a state single-payer system. Becerra has said he supports Medicare for All, declining to answer questions about his current views on CalCare, which failed to advance in the state Legislature last month.

Only Steyer has said he will vote for the billionaire tax, though other Democrats support the premise of taxing the wealthy even more. Porter called it “simply not good tax policy,” while Villaraigosa called it “flawed.”

Meanwhile, the two Republicans on stage — former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — frequently aligned with one another, focusing their attacks on the Democrats and at times complimenting one another.

While the recent debates may not have resulted in any one candidate breaking through the pack, Dan Schnur, a political science professor at UC Berkeley and the University of Southern California, said“we’re beginning to see some ideological structure emerging in the fields.”

Steyer and Porter would shift the state to the left, Mahan and Villaraigosa would move it more to the center and Hilton and Bianco would move it to the right, according to Schnur.

“If you don’t want anything to change at all, Becerra has become the status quo candidate,” he said.

Here are a few key takeaways from this week’s debates:

Becerra continues facing attacks

Becerra appeared to have been the biggest beneficiary of former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s exit from the race over sexual misconduct allegations, vaulting the former health secretary to the front of the pack.

He was the recipient of the bulk of attacks in both debates this week, cementing his status as an emerging frontrunner. His competitors criticized his record as health secretary over his handling of migrant children at the border, and made insinuations about his knowledge of a Sacramento corruption scandal in which his former chief of staff and an advisor are facing criminal charges over allegedly stealing campaign funds from him. Becerra has not been accused of any wrongdoing in the case and told his opponents to “read the indictment” at Tuesday’s debate.

David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University, said “voters don’t have enough information relative to the Sacramento scandal” for it to stick, noting that it’s very “in the weeds.”

Becerra faced the most heat this week from longtime rival Villaraigosa, a fellow Los Angeles Democrat, who launched an attack ad this week featuring a clip of former Biden administration official Xochitl Hinojosa telling CNN that Becerra as health secretary “was not effective in governing.”

In one heated exchange between Villaraigosa and Becerra, the former secretary told his opponent “cálmate, Antonio, cálmate,” which translates to “calm down.”

Could the debates help Mahan?

Mahan has faced an uphill battle with his campaign, being the last candidate to enter the race in late January and having little to no name recognition in Southern California where a vast majority of voters live.

Maviglio said the debates “increased his exposure” to those voters outside of the Bay Area.

“It gave him a presence on the stage, and the ability to compete where before he was just an asterisk in a poll,” he said.

Schnur said Mahan has been a “very effective debater” and showed a “strong knowledge of the issues.”

“The question is whether that’s enough to get him enough attention that he needs in a short amount of time,” he said.

Mahan could get a boost in the weeks to come as his campaign, along with a tech-backed independent expenditure committee, has recently started a statewide ad blitz. Money supporting the San Jose mayor is only dwarfed by Steyer who has poured more than $150 million of his own wealth into his bid.

Homelessness continues to be a hot button issue in the race

With California having spent tens of billions of dollars trying to solve the state’s homelessness crisis in recent years, moderators asked the candidates on Wednesday whether encampments taking over sidewalks and parks is becoming the “new norm.”

Many of the Democratic candidates, like Steyer, Porter and Becerra, agreed on the need to invest in prevention efforts.

“Rental assistance is much cheaper and more humane than letting someone go on the street,” Steyer said.

Porter, Villaraigosa and Becerra talked about the need for accountability for the money being spent on the problem.

Mahan said San Jose has “created a model for the rest of the state,” touting the city’s push to invest in interim housing as it sweeps its last major encampment.

While Democrats, like Porter, pointed to the root of homelessness being the state’s high cost of living, Bianco said it has “never been about homes.”

“This is about drug and alcohol addiction,” he said. “This is about mental illness and a combination of both. Until we start calling it what it is and treating it for what it is. We are never going to get out of it.”

Hilton agreed with his Republican contender, saying that “Chad’s plan is exactly right.”

Handling California’s insurance crisis

As insurance companies have pulled out of the state or stopped writing policies for homeowners altogether amid California’s worsening wildfires, the next governor could be involved with solving a growing insurance crisis alongside a new state insurance commissioner.

Becerra was the only candidate who said he would freeze insurance rates — a power that some experts have said the governor doesn’t have. Many of his Democratic opponents said freezing rates would likely worsen the problem.

“We can’t afford to freeze rates because what will happen is every insurer remaining in this state will leave,” Porter said. “If people cannot get insurance, they will not build more houses.”

Porter said the solution to bring insurers back to the market is to allow “premiums to be written to the risk.”

Villaraigosa said the state need to make the FAIR plan, which is an insurer of last resort, work for more people until California is able to bring insurers back.

Hilton said he would ensure that the state is enforcing Proposition 103, which requires insurance companies to get approval for rate changes from the elected insurance commissioner, and make sure those are being done in the required time frame.

Bianco said the “insurance companies are not going to come back if another Democrat is elected,” blaming their exodus on “failed Democrat policies.”

The next, and possibly final, debate before the primary will be at 5:30 p.m. May 14 on CBS.

________